The price of polysilicon continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of about 11%. The price difference between the highest price and the lowest price narrowed slightly, but the transaction prices of first-tier and second-tier companies still diverged. The latest point of view of China Galaxy Securities pointed out that the price of silicon materials is expected to usher in an inflection point.
On the macro level, eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that the application of new charging and swapping technologies such as intelligent orderly charging, high-power charging, automatic charging, and fast battery swapping should be accelerated, and the pilot application of “optical storage charging and discharging” integration should be accelerated.
In terms of enterprises, after opening in 2023, in the face of the unbalanced development of the industrial chain and the continuous “invasion” of outside cross-border players, several leading companies such as LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. have continued to increase their size and expand their portfolios. increase production, consolidate the company’s market share and consolidate its leading position.
Active market transactions, order volume and price rise
According to data from the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the price range for domestic single crystal re-feeding this week was 220,000-249,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 242,300 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11. .40%; the price range of monocrystalline dense material is 218,000-247,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 239,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11.48%.
This week, the price of polysilicon materials continued to rise, with a weekly increase of about 11%. Among them, the mainstream transaction price of single crystal multi-feed materials was 230,000-245,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price narrowed slightly , but the transaction prices of first-tier and second-tier enterprises are still differentiated. The lowest price of re-feeding is 220,000 yuan/ton, and the highest price is about 250,000 yuan/ton for some individual orders. This week, more than 10 companies have signed new orders, and the market activity has increased significantly. Most of the companies with new orders have signed orders until mid-February, and the number of orders signed by each company has increased significantly.
The main reasons for the continued increase in the price of silicon materials and the large transaction volume this week are: On the one hand, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises is still relatively low, and the shortage of supply supports the sharp rise in silicon wafer prices, and the increase is higher than the cost of raw polysilicon. Therefore, silicon wafer enterprises The acceptance of the continuation of the rise in the price of silicon materials has increased; on the other hand, compared with the current price of silicon wafers compared with the price of polysilicon, the raw material for making silicon wafers, the profit is relatively considerable, and the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises in the early stage has been constant. The price of silicon wafers remains low, and raw material inventories have been exhausted. Therefore, when the price of silicon wafers has risen to considerable profits and the market is in short supply, it is inevitable that the operating rate will increase. Therefore, the actual transaction volume of silicon materials has increased significantly this week.
As of this week, the number of polysilicon companies in production remained at 15, and by the end of 2023, the number of domestic companies in production will increase to more than 20. The annual capacity increase is about 1.04 million tons/year, including about 740,000 tons/year of expansion projects of existing enterprises in production, and about 300,000 tons/year of new projects of new enterprises.
It is expected that companies that will release incremental growth in the first half of the year include: GCL Technology, Baotou Daquan, Xinte Energy, Dongfang Hope, Inner Mongolia Dongli, etc., and companies that will release new production in the second half of the year include Yongxiang, Xinjiang Jingnuo, and Baofeng Energy , Shangji CNC, Hesheng Silicon Industry, etc.
According to the production and operation plans of various enterprises, and taking into account factors such as the maintenance of various enterprises and market prices affecting the release progress of production, it is conservatively estimated that the annual domestic production of silicon materials in 2023 will be about 1.35 million tons, silicon wafers will be about 525GW, and the terminal demand will be 350GW. In comparison, the two links of silicon materials and silicon wafers are in a state of oversupply as a whole, but the staged market price will still be based on factors such as the actual pace of terminal installations, production capacity and production progress of each link in the industrial chain, operating rate adjustments, and inventory digestion. Volatility changes.
From a quarterly perspective, the supply adjustment at the front end of the industrial chain in the first quarter will help stabilize prices, and the increase in demand in the fourth quarter will help to digest inventory in all links. relatively more prominent.